Gold put in a considerable move on the back of this dovishness, and as we had written last month, Gold Prices Shine When Central Bankers Scurry into Action. For those looking to play a continuation of the dovish-Central Bank theme, look to Gold: Some will say ‘metals,’ or ‘commodities’ for similar plays, but evaluating recent performance, specifically the ratio of gold prices to silver prices would indicate that this isn’t a broad-based commodities or metals play.
One of the more prominent areas for that USD-weakness to show up has been against the Yen. Yesterday’s FOMC decision likely brought a two-pronged effect to the Yen: We’re likely seeing capital flows from USD to JPY on this more dovish FOMC read, but we’re also likely see a deflection of safe-haven flows from the US Dollar into the Japanese Yen. So say, for instance, investors in China. With the Fed taking a more dovish tone, there are fewer reasons for that Chinese investor to move capital into USD rather than JPY.
This theme is likely one of the reasons that the Bank of Japan made the move to negative rates in February. As global risk factors were continuing to increase, the Bank of Japan had the very realistic fear of seeing 3+ years of Yen-losses wiped away by risk aversion. And for an export-heavy nation like Japan that’s already facing deflationary-like pressures, the prospect of their currency strengthening by 20% or more all but assured the economy of going back into a recessionary environment.

